Strictly Increasing Markov Chains as Wear Processes

نویسنده

  • Mario Lefebvre
چکیده

To model the lifetime of a device, increasing Markov chains are used. The transition probabilities of the chain are as follows: pi, j = p if j = i+δ, and pi, j = 1− p if j = i+2δ. The mean time to failure of the device, namely the mean number of transitions required for the process, starting from x0, to take on a value greater than or equal to x0 + kδ is computed explicitly. A second version of this Markov chain, based on a standard Brownian motion that is discretized and conditioned to always move from its current state x to either x + δ or x + 2δ after time units, is also considered. Again the expected value of the time it takes the process to cross the boundary at x0 + kδ is computed explicitly.

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تاریخ انتشار 2010